Minimum Wage Changes is the Tip of the Iceberg.

I started thinking about this a long time ago, but today's monologue started playing out when I saw this article posted on Facebook by The Christian Left:

http://news.groopspeak.com/fast-food-ceo-threatens-to-fire-everyone-if-a-democrat-wins-the-presidency/

In the next 5 years, economists estimate that another 6% of current American jobs will disappear, victims of automation. The advances in technology that are driving this will continue (or accelerate). Boycotts cannot stop this. Laws that require employers to use human workers will not work. Out future (50 or fewer years hence) will include a large and growing population of jobless people. It will include an even larger population of "almost" or "soon-to-be" jobless people. Our society (politically and economically) operates almost strictly in a capitalist fashion with small, decorative touches of socialism around the edges (Social Security, Medicaid, public schools).

It seems to me that there are only two directions that we can go: deeper into oligarchy or deeper into socialism. However, when the jobless population reaches a critical mass, the question will be "How much of society's resources will be directed toward the support of those jobless?" Since people in large masses haven't changed in a few millennia, the threat of violence by the 80% (say, the 40% jobless and the 40% soon-to-be jobless) will require an answer.

A rough estimate (purely back--of-envelope, SWAG) would put the current number in the neighborhood of 60% of the GDP. I get that from the 45% that goes toward wages and salaries, and a little over half of the 27% that goes into taxes. As the resources (GDP) that are directed into wages and salaries shrinks toward single digits, two things will have to happen. First, more tax revenue will need to be extracted from the economy. Second, the nature of joblessness will need to be reshaped into normalcy.

Many of the highly developed economies around the world are on this path. Recently, many employers in Sweden have gone to 6 hour work days. (Oddly enough, they find that total employee output remains as high as it was at 40 hours.) As the need for "employee output" shrinks, the rest of the social safety net will be more important. When it becomes a requirement for the majority of the population, it will morph from "safety net" to "lifestyle".

In the United States, conservatives have exalted the capitalist system to near religious levels. It seems almost as if the worship of "Mammon" has become the state religion. Coupled with that, the disdain toward the "losers", the "takers", those who are "dependent" on government grows. Interestingly, this election cycle features a larger than usual amount of rage by those who are being driven into being "takers". It seems that, as long as the "losers" could be characterized as lazy and irresponsible, the masses were OK with the economic losses. When too many of the masses found themselves to be driven out of the circle of winners (through automation, outsourcing, immigration, corporate failures, etc), they have reacted badly.

A significant portion of the resources of this country must be directed to support ALL the people of this country. When there are not enough jobs of sufficient quality to go around, we (that is, our government) will be forced to accomodate this new world of joblessness.